The Privilege of Winning Pt. 2
In part one of this two-part series, we discussed the high expectations surrounding the program and briefly touched on some key themes for the offense next year.
In this second part of this series, we will try to uncover some key themes on the defensive side of the ball and conclude with some thoughts surrounding the TV schedule for next season.
Anomalies
When I reflect upon the 2022 defense, some awesome moments come to mind. The goal line stand in the Big 12 Championship, sacks by King Felix, and big hits delivered courtesy of Kobe Savage and Daniel Green.
As good as the defense was at times last year, there were periods of uncertainty and frustration. If we evaluate the K-State defense from the only metric that matters, points per game, K-State appears to be the best version of themselves, ranking 29th in the country by only allowing 21.9 points per game.
It is only when we dig a little deeper that we start to uncover some less-than-stellar data. For example, K-State ranked 68th in rush defense last season, giving up an average of 150 yards per game. By the same token, against the pass, K-State ranked 64th, allowing 224 yards per game.
I thought there was a bit of a disconnect between the points per game data and the rushing/passing yards per game. To understand this extent, I created a multiple linear regression model that looked back at ten years worth of rushing and passing defensive data. I then plugged the model with the 2022 inputs and subtracted the modeled points per game from the actual points per game.
Based on my regression output, K-State outperformed the modeled output by 3.47 points per game in 2022. That was good for ninth-best in the country. If K-State had performed as the model suggested, they would have finished 63rd overall in points per game.
I usually guard against trying to build narratives around a single data point, but the output was intriguing and, I think, worth an exploration into how K-State was able to outperform their average rushing and passing defense stats.
My initial thought was that the K-State red zone defense performed at an incredible clip and held opponents to field goals as opposed to touchdowns. This turned out to be incorrect. K-State ranked 58th last year in red zone touchdowns, allowing 27 for the year. However, the key piece of data I found is that K-State only allowed 40 trips to the red zone last season. Good for 23rd in the country last season.
I conclude that although the red zone defense was bad, opponents were not quite reaching the red zone. Drives were stalling when opponents went to the K-State side of the field. This created a tough decision on whether to go for a long fourth-down attempt or risk a long field goal.
While this is a good situational defense, I am not sure it can be sustained. In my estimation, K-State will have to improve in three key categories if they want to maintain or improve upon their current output: big plays, first-down run defense, and third-down pass defense. These three metrics will give us a good gauge of the improvement of the defense.
Big Play
The K-State defense ranked 97th in the country last season in plays over 20 yards, giving up a total of 64 on the year. 44 of those were through the air. This is at odds with the 3-2-6, 3-3-5 defensive format that is designed to help eliminate big plays. K-State has to display some sort of improvement in this category.
Yes, I know K-State only gave up 21 points per game last year, and that is a number people will draw back to, but my fear is there will be a reversion to the mean this season, especially considering that the K-State secondary lost three starters to the NFL. What this secondary will look like is a major question mark entering next season.
2nd and Short
Last season, I harped on the poor performance of K-State’s first-down rushing defense. The data continued to validate these concerns as K-State gave up 4.45 yards per carry on the first down. This was good for 77th in the country.
This is the tradeoff with the three-man front; however, setting up consistent and manageable second chances for opponents will eventually lead to failure.
I do think there is a sense of optimism for improvement around this stat, as K-State’s box defenders might be arguably the best group the program has had in a long time. Mississippi State transfer Jevon Banks will be the big story to watch here, along with Daniel Green returning for his final season. On the outside, Brendan Mott, Khalid Duke, and Nate Matlack provide really solid depth and balance for this defense. Austin Moore will roam the weak side linebacker position, leaving Desmond Purcell, Rex Van Wyhe, and Terry Kirksey Jr. to provide depth and fill in the Sam linebacker spot.
One Leads to Another
Building off the poor 1st down rushing stats, opponents were able to capitalize on manageable 3rd down opportunities, which led to K-State giving up 41 first downs via pass, that was 98th in the country.
All of these things are connected; it takes all eleven defenders to play sound defensive team football. K-State has to figure out something personnel-wise and schematically here to improve.
Sense of Optimism
Two modes of thought present themselves when researching this 2022 K-State defense. On one hand, despite some poor statistical measures, they still won the Big 12, which highlights that points per game is the only stat that matters, and K-State can build from here. On the other hand, a fourteen-game sample size is not nearly enough to truly understand a defense's ability, and it leaves too much room for happenstance occurrences. I am not totally sure where I stand, but I think I lean toward the former rather than the latter.
Chris Klieman and Joe Klanderman have done more than enough to earn our trust here, and I think the returning talent combined with the new faces on the defense can provide another capable, solid defense. My biggest concern is whether this defense can improve from the previous season. The data outlined above plus my gut tell me no, but I am often proven wrong by this coaching staff and team, so we will see.
ESPN+
The 2023 schedule sets up favorably for K-State. In my estimation, the toughest stretch will be that three-game pocket right there in the middle when they have the Friday night game against Oklahoma State followed by another away game against Texas Tech and then come back home to face TCU.
Taking all of that into consideration, let's talk through some TV scheduling.
We know so far that SEMO will be on the Big 12 ESPN+ brand. In week two, the Troy game will be on FS1, and in week three, the Missouri game will be on the SEC Network.
The below graphic provides a good matrix of the week-to-week scheduling of Big 12 teams. KMAN also did a projection.
Generally speaking, I think the Big 12 will get four games on one of the major networks, FOX, FS1, ESPN,ABC, and ESPN 2. If four games are selected for “Tier 1” TV, then that leaves three Big 12 games on “Tier 2” ESPNU or ESPN+. Since we know the first three weeks I will look at the remaining nine games.
UCF- Tier 2- Lots of competition this week, K-State and UCF will get the short end here.
OSU- ESPN - Already announced. Friday night game. Do not love the Friday night spots, but this is part of the changing environment.
Texas Tech- Tier 1- Not a lot of premier games for the Big 12 this week.
TCU- Tier 1- Again not a great slate for the Big 12. K-State should get the 11AM on FS1 treatment.
Houston- Tier 2- Good competition this week, Houston probably wont be a big enough draw for Tier 1 material.
Texas- Tier 1- Two of the Big 12’s top teams facing off. This has Big Noon Kickoff potential.
Baylor- Tier 1- Favorable matchups here across the board I think K-State and Baylor will be good enough to earn a Tier 1 spot at this point in the season.
KU- Tier 1- I am hard pressed they would relegate a rivalry game to Tier 2 TV
Iowa State- Tier 2- Sleepy final week I think this gets on Tier 2 just because there are a lot of implications that final week and I do not think Iowa State will be in a position to make it compelling.
If K-State only played four games on Tier 2 TV I would consider that a success especially in this environment.
Closing Remarks
As K-State breaks for summer camp there is a period of ~90 days between now and opening kickoff. The returning experience combined with the upgraded talent should make for another great year of football.
I hope to write periodically throughout the summer, but if not I hope everyone has a wonderful safe summer. Go Cats!