The Middle Eight

In recent years, the football analytics community has focused more intently on possessions during the final four minutes of the second quarter and the first four minutes of the third quarter. This time period is referred to as the “middle eight.”

The premise of the middle eight is one rooted in psychology: the timing of scoring is almost as important as scoring at all. If a team can control the final possession on offense before halftime and score, then you can effectively keep opposing offenses seated for close to 45 minutes of actual time. In turn, this should disrupt the rhythm, momentum, and thus advantage an opposing offense might have. There is also an added bonus if a team can score before halftime and receive the second-half kickoff. ‘Two for one’, as it’s sometimes referred to as.

The increase in focus on the middle eight is primarily due to the high correlation between winning football games and winning the middle eight minutes. From 2014 to 2019, at the FBS level, teams that won the middle eight minutes won 76% of the time. Now is a good time to remind you that correlation does not equal causation. Nevertheless, managing these few minutes of a ballgame is interesting, especially considering which team receives the second half kickoff and how long an opposing offense is sitting.

Let’s unpack K-State’s 2023 middle-eight performance a little more below.

50/50

During the 2023 regular season, K-State won 7 of 12 coin tosses. Out of those 7, K-State elected to receive in the first half four times. That four-game stretch ran from Troy through Oklahoma State. K-State deferred their option to the second half for SEMO, Texas, and Iowa State.

In the beginning of the season, it seemed that many coaches were worried about the new clock rules and how they would affect the number of plays run per game. Oddly enough, K-State ran five more offensive plays per game than it did in 2022. A testament to the performance of the offense during the 2023 season.

However, K-State reached an inflection point in the games against UCF and Oklahoma State that impacted their strategy for winning coin tosses moving forward. Let’s unpack a more chaotic stretch of the season.

Chaos

As noted above, K-State went through a dangerous stretch against Oklahoma State and UCF before halftime and into the third quarter.

With K-State leading 21 to 10 with 4 minutes to go in the half, UCF ripped off a two-play 76-yard touchdown possession, making the score 21 to 17 with 3:19 left in the half. On the ensuing possession, K-State turns the ball over on downs, leaving 1:23 left in the half, with UCF also receiving the 2nd half kickoff.

UCF would then go on to throw an interception on the second play of the drive, which now gave K-State a chance before halftime. K-State put together a quick 5-play drive to get down to the UCF 8, only to miss the field goal as time expired.

Exiting halftime, UCF ripped off another 3-play, 46-yard touchdown drive, making the score 24-21 UCF. K-State settled back in and put together a nice drive to finally get back on the scoreboard with a field goal to tie it at 24 with 9:33 to go in the third quarter.

This entire sequence of events ended up being a moot point. K-State would go on to dominate the final 24 minutes of game time, but the poor defense compounded by the two-for-one opportunity by UCF put this game into a more strenuous situation. K-State lost the middle eight minutes here by 11 points.

Disaster in Stillwater

Often times, winning can make us blind to deeper issues. Oklahoma State was a wake-up call that a change in strategy was needed moving forward.

With 4:03 left in the second half, despite a poor, uneven performance by K-State, Oklahoma State was only leading 10 to 7. When K-State retook possession at the 12:03 mark in the third quarter, they found themselves now down 23 to 7. Two field goals and a disastrous pick six during the middle eight minutes proved to be too much for K-State to overcome.

I can’t help to think if receiving the second half kickoff would have changed the outcome just a bit. Perhaps knowing this, K-State would have been less aggressive before halftime knowing an immediate possession of the football awaited them in the second half. Hindsight is always 20/20.

A Positive Picture

It’s sort of funny how statistics work sometimes.

K-State lost the middle eight minutes against four opponents. UCF, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and KU. They would go on to win three of four of those games.

On the flip side, K-State won their middle eight minutes against SEMO, Mizzou, Houston, TCU, and Texas. Winning only three of five there.

Lastly, they finished the middle eight tied with Troy, Texas Tech, and Iowa State.

K-State finished the regular season 8-4. If you assume the tied games are 1.5 wins/loss total (.50*3), then you get an expected finish based on the middle eight outcomes of 6.5 and 5.5 (5+1.5 with 4+1.5). By that standard, K-State actually overachieved a bit relative to their performance during the middle eight minutes.

This is one of the limitations of looking at the middle eight minutes in a vacuum. The data lacks context and other information that could possibly affect a team’s performance, such as injuries, timeouts, game flow, and oh yeah the remaining 52 minutes of the game. 

Final Takeaway

The middle eight minutes are important as they can demoralize an opponent. Games are not won during the middle eight but it’s, my belief they can be lost.

The 2023 performance by K-State highlighted both their flaws and resiliency. With new staffers on offense and a second year quarterback, situational management will need to be a point of emphasis during the 2024 season.