Warren Buffett once said:
I try to invest in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.
Last week, I wrote about the ecosystem Mike Gundy has been able to build at Oklahoma State. This week, I will dive into the machine that Lincoln Riley has inherited and the mighty challenges K-State faces this week against OU.
The Machine
Bob Stoops during his time as head coach of Oklahoma built an absolute machine of a program. Stoops revamped the OU brand, consistently brought in top tier talent which in turn became NFL talent, and produced numerous high level assistant coaches that went on to become head coaches. I will not pretend Stoops was starting from scratch here, but Stoops certainly left OU infinitely times better than when he inherited it.
Its rare in college football that a new head coach is hired without some sort of scandal, program identity crisis, or deteriorating performance. Lincoln Riley inherited a fine tuned machine dialed in and optimized with two soon to be Heisman winning quarterbacks and numerous NFL starters on offense.
Lincoln Riley has taken this fine tuned machine and enhanced it by leading the Sooners to three College Football Playoff appearances. Any program would dream of achieving this level of success in a short time frame and it certainly should be commended.
There has been some ongoing urgency and concern among big media members, college football fans, and OU fans that this machine is starting to breakdown. Giving this some thought, I think we need to approach OU and Lincoln Riley through the lens that the sum of the parts are greater than the whole.
What I mean by this is that Riley’s recruiting, offensive production, and the way he is able to utilize the OU brand is extremely valuable. However, Riley cannot quite combine those things to reach the next level. His assistant coaches are not highly sought after, his teams display discipline issues (OU has averaged 102nd in penalties under Riley), and the OU defense under Riley has been been less than average. The defense has improved a great deal in 2021, but the point still stands. The question remains if Riley can put it all together and take that next step. From a wholistic standpoint, this might be Lincoln Riley’s best overall team since he took over the Sooners in 2017.
The Challenge
There are enormous challenges in this game. The phrase “its about Jimmy’s and Joe’s not X’s and O’s” probably applies here. OU is littered with 4 and 5 star talent and out match K-State athletically at pretty much every position group. Fans of K-State might point to the fact that Chris Klieman is 2 and 0 against Lincoln Riley. Totally fair, but lets be honest with ourselves here. I really worry this is the start of the scorched earth OU tour.
As I noted above, the OU defense has improved a great deal in 2021. I am not sold on Alex Grinch quite yet, but they’re much improved. The OU front 7 is most concerning against a K-State team that is one-dimensional. Josh Ellison, Nik Bonitto, and Perrion Winfrey are NFL caliber defenders that can put a lot of pressure on offenses with how well they move.
Of course, the offense is a big concern. Is Spencer Rattler overrated? Yes. Can he still put up big numbers and carve up a defense? Yes. Marvin Mims and Jadon Haselwood will probably be the best two receiver combo K-State will face this year.
What to Watch for
One of the things I notice with this OU offense is their lack of patience. It is almost as if they cannot handle a first down incompletion or running play for zero yardage. They then compound it by trying to get large chunk plays as opposed to a modest 4 to 5 yards. First down plays for minimal yardage will be crucial for this K-State defense in order to win.
I think OU might recognize their issues and bring a good dose of zone run plays and screens to the mix on Saturday. OU is going to try and get to the edge with their speed and put the K-State defense in bad positions. I would be shocked to see 2 linebackers again from K-State. I think the 3-3 with deep coverage will be the game plan to avoid the disaster we witnessed last week.
By the Numbers
Through the first four weeks, Oklahoma has produced the following results.
Scoring Defense- 16 PPG (T-20th nationally)
Rushing Offense and Defense- Offense: 161 YPG (67th nationally) Defense: 79 YPG (T-14th nationally)
3rd Down conversion Offense and Defense- Offense: 46% (22/47) (T-31st nationally) Defense: 21% (17/57) (T-21st nationally)
Turnover Margin- +5 (T-8th nationally)
Penalty Yardage- 54 YPG (65th nationally)
Not much to say here. The OU defense is very opportunistic and we will see if K-State learned anything from last week when going against bigger fronts on both sides of the ball.
Wrapping Up
Klieman noted it is unlikely Skylar comes back for this game. Unless a drastic improvement is made in the passing game for K-State I fail to see how K-State can win here. On one hand, OU has Texas on their mind for next week. On the other, K-State looks bad against quality competition without Skylar. Not feeling great here. I say take OU at -10.5 and the Moneyline. I am fearful of the OU scorched earth tour beginning.
Week 4 Picks
We were +2 units last week and overall (-1 units) for the year. Please find my week 5 picks below.
Texas -5 vs. TCU (2 units)- This could be a let down look ahead situation for Texas. However, this TCU defense got exposed last week. Sark understands the gravity and opportunity Texas has to win and make the CFP in his first year here. I think Texas wins this easily.
Florida vs. Kentucky +8 (1 unit)- Not sure Kentucky wins here, but they’re improved on offense and have nothing to lose against a top 10 team.
Mississippi State +7 vs. Texas A&M (1 unit)- Mississippi State should have kicked the shit out of LSU last week. I think they clean up the mistakes and keep it within a score here.
Louisiana Tech +20.5 vs. NC State (1 unit)- Tough to get up after an emotional overtime win for NC State. Louisiana Tech is always gritty. I say take Tech here.