Redemption
TCU Week 8 Preview
The rise and fall of power five football coaches can be a fast one. The stakes are large and there is little tolerance for poor performance. In previous eras of the sport, being fired from a head coaching job usually excluded a coach from seeking employment as a head coach again, especially at the power five level.
Recently, this idea has been put to the test as a few power five programs have have seen success with previously fired coaches. Lane Kiffin, Mack Brown, Bret Bielema, and Steve Sarkisian, to name a few. I should note, there has also been some notable failures, Karl Dorrell, Kevin Sumlin, and Les Miles.
Redemption for a fired head coach requires a degree of humility. The path to obtaining another power five job usually requires seeking employment as a low-level analyst at top level programs and spending a year or two learning and growing from some of the best in business (The Nick Saban School for bad coaches). James Clear, the author of the hit book Atomic Habits, recently wrote in his newsletter “Keep ignoring feedback and life will keep teaching you the same lesson”. I think this captures the need for coaches to take a step back in order to go forward.
Sonny Dykes, the Head Coach of TCU, fits the mold of someone who handled being fired the right way. He took a step back after being fired from Cal and joined the TCU staff in 2017 as an analyst. After working at TCU for a season, Dykes became the head coach at SMU where he went 30-17 in four seasons. Most importantly, he was able to lose the stigma of his previous employment and rejuvenate a down trodden SMU program.
I think this trend of retread head coaches will grow incrementally as more programs gain comfort with the redemption model outlined above. So as long as there is legitimate learning and growth from previous failures. The general feedback so far is positive as TCU is 6-0 and has placed themselves as a legitimate contender for the Big 12 title.
The Challenge
While head coach Sonny Dykes might be known for his “air raid” offense, the primary challenge this week will be stopping this TCU run game. TCU ranks 14th in the country in rushing yards per game. Running Back Kendre Miller has all the tools to be great while quarterback Max Duggan displays both speed and power when he runs the ball. The QB run game poses challenges for everyone and with the K-State secondary playing deep to account for the TCU wide receiving corp, I imagine TCU will be focusing on running the ball this week.
What to Watch For
The formula for beating the K-State defense will continue to be short wide passes. Teams are recognizing Khalid Duke does not quite have the cover ability he might have once displayed and are playing games with him on the edge. TCU will force Khalid to widen out and tackle a wideout in space or they will run off the edge and force Khalid to tackle a running back in space.
Offensively, K-State as to decide what it wants to be this weekend. They have been lucky so far, but if they continue their inconsistent performance, they will be blown out and this game could turn fast. I think we will continue to see a mix of power run and RPO passing from K-State.
I would be remiss if I did not mention the TCU wide receiving corp. Quentin Johnston is a big-time pro prospect and I think he poses nightmare problems for K-State. As mentioned above, I think K-State will play over the top in their three safety looks and force Max Duggan to make tight throws or run the ball underneath. He has a history of being erratic and I think he will give this K-State defense a shot for an INT. K-State will need to be ready when the opportunity presents itself.
TCU By The Numbers
Scoring Defense- 26.5 PPG (70th nationally)
Rushing Offense and Defense- Offense: 224 YPG (14th nationally) Defense: 135 YPG (55th nationally)
3rd Down conversion Offense and Defense- Offense: 44% (32/72) (44th nationally) Defense: 38% (37/95) (73rd nationally)
Turnover Margin: +4 (T-26th nationally)
Penalty Yardage- 45 YPG (32nd nationally)
Wrapping Up
I really do not like this matchup for K-State. Yes, the TCU defense is questionable, but they have a ton of speed and matchup well athletically to stop Deuce and Adrian. However, I also see a scenario where K-State is able to run over their defensive line and gain chunk yardage. I also think the psychology of a big win the previous week is in play here. I like the Cats here to not only cover at 3.5, but win as well.
Week 8 Picks
We were 2-2 last week for an overall record of 17-11 with a net 1 unit lost. We are + 8 units on the year.
UCLA +6 vs. Oregon (1 Unit)- I was dead wrong about UCLA, I thought Chip Kelly was a borderline fireable territory. 6 points is a stretch here and I like UCLA to cover. DTR has also been on fire lately.
Buffalo +7.5 vs. Toledo (1 Unit)- We got some Maction going here. Buffalo is a pretty solid team and Jason Candle is always liable to muck one up for Toledo. However, I would not take this at +7 or lower.
Ohio State -29.5 vs. Iowa (1 Unit)- Iowa will need to throw in order to compete here and I could see a situation where Iowa gives Ohio State short fields to work with in the 2nd half.
Navy +3 vs. Houston ( 1 Unit)- I love betting on service academies as dogs. That offense is tough and when you’re as undisciplined as Houston it can be pretty enticing.