Little Rock to Lubbock with a quick stop in Vegas is how a man with some warrants lives.
-Bunkie Perkins describing Chris Beard.
This line by Bunkie Perkins rings true. Matt Wells does not quite have the same resume as Chris Beard, but anyone that spends some time in Logan, Utah and Lubbock, Texas has seen some things.
I find one of the more interesting things about college football to be how programs develop an identity and never seem to shake it despite going through multiple coaching changes. For example, think of the Miami football program. Ever since Larry Coker was fired, it has been a revolving door of incredible talent, bad quarterback play, and undisciplined football.
Texas Tech is similar in this regard. Ever since the Mike Leach era, it has been a consistent stream of great offense, poor defense, and undisciplined football.
Matt Wells has taken on this challenge and is trying to right the ship. He was apart of that new class of Big 12 head coaches hired after the 2018 season. Wells has underperformed so far. His teams never seem quite right and it always seems like its one thing or another with his teams.
While the results for Tech have not been there yet, Tech finds themselves showing improvement this year. When their starting quarterback Tyler Shough went down, it looked to be another disaster year. However, they have put together a 5-2 record with a solid win over West Virginia. If you look at the rest of the schedule you can make the case that it lacks quality, but nevertheless Tech finds themselves at 5-2.
In this weeks preview, I will focus on what K-State needs to do in order to avoid disaster in Lubbock.
The Challenge
The challenge set forth for K-State is once again K-State itself. Klieman’s teams have a precedent of playing to their level of competition. Lubbock, Texas can be a tough environment and K-State really needs to focus on taking the crowd out of this game early.
On defense, K-State will be facing an experienced offensive line and a solid receiving corp. Tech’s offensive coordinator is Sonny Cumbie, is experienced and understands how to put points on the board. The K-State defense will have their hands full trying to manage the pass and the run from a solid group of skill position players.
Tech is most notably associated with their air raid offense, but it is the run game that opens things up for the rest of this tech offense. Tech is committed to running the ball and will do so close to 30 times this game. This will be a great test to see if any improvements have been made on defense after 3 straight lackluster performances.
What to Watch For
I will be clear here, K-State should run this team into the ground. Tech is light up front and K-State has a size and fundamental advantage. I expect a heavy dose of running plays and for the Cats to move it methodically down field while controlling the clock.
The Tech offensive line is their overall best unit. They’re experienced and appear to be fundamentally sound. One thing I noticed about this unit is how narrow their splits are. I am not sure why they do this, but it is pretty effective as Tech has only given up 10 sacks so far this year.
How K-State manages their front 6 will be extremely important. Do they elect for more defensive lineman to manage the run game or go lighter as Tech tries to throw the ball around. This will be a key to watch as the game unfolds. I think they need to take their chances in the pass game and elect to stop the run with 3 linebackers on the field.
By the Numbers
Scoring Defense- 31.4 PPG (101st nationally)
Rushing Offense and Defense- Offense: 168 YPG (62nd nationally) Defense: 161 YPG (85th nationally)
3rd Down conversion Offense and Defense- Offense: 49% (41/83) (T-9th nationally) Defense: 43% (45/105) (101st nationally)
Turnover Margin- -4 (109th nationally)
Penalty Yardage- 43 YPG (T-20th nationally)
The run defense is not great, K-State really needs to take advantage here. I think with how poor this defense is, a lot of 4th down conversion opportunities will present themselves and I imagine K-State will convert.
Wrapping Up
I think overall this game presents K-State with an opportunity to boost their confidence. This is not a great Texas Tech team, but putting together consistent successful drives and getting a few 3 and outs will go a long way for this team.
The rest of the schedule presents highly favorable winning opportunities and I think cooler heads will prevail when you beat the teams you’re supposed to beat. Is K-State where it needs to be at? No. Are they at a level where they should be dominating bad Big 12 teams? Yes. I think it starts this week.
I am taking the Cats at +1 and the moneyline.
Week 8 Picks
We were -3 units last week and overall (-4 units) for the year (this was incorrect previously). Please find my week 8 picks below.
Utah State vs. Colorado State Under 58.5 (2 Units) - Both of these teams are bad. I have a hard time seeing 8 touchdowns and a field goal in this one.
Ohio State -21 vs. Indiana (2 Units)- Ohio State has to put on the gas every week. This Indiana defense cannot compete with these Ohio State skill guys.
Wyoming vs. New Mexico Over 41 (1 Units)- This was so low I had to take it. Wyoming plays good defense and New Mexico is bad. I think Wyoming can get to 41 on their own.
Mississippi State -20.5 vs. Vanderbilt (1 Units)- This game should not be anywhere close. Hail State.