If you attended an awkward middle school dance in the mid to late 2000’s there is a greater than 100% chance the song Cyclone by Baby Bash echoed its way through a sweaty gym or cafeteria. I would also imagine if you hear the song today, your mind wanders back to those days and reminisces.
Reminiscing and nostalgia serves as a double edge sword for us. It generates positive feelings and takes you back to something concrete that can make you grateful and reflective on how far you have come. On the flip side, if you stay there too long it can create complacency and make dealing with reality difficult.
In this weeks preview, we will take a look at the Iowa State fans and players reminiscing too much about last season and some things to consider for Farmageddon.
Suspect
I go back and forth on Campbell and his accolades as a great head coach. On one hand, he is given the benefit of the doubt when Iowa State loses because winning at Iowa State is difficult due to recruiting constraints, money, NFL draft picks, brand name, and location. On the other hand, when he does win, it seems like he is exceeding expectations and his formula at Iowa State will be able to apply elsewhere. Matt Campbell can have his cake and eat it too.
I think a lot of the Campbell hype has to do with ESPN. I think they like him because he is young and shows potential. This in turn will provide future access and opportunities for ESPN when Campbell eventually does move on from Iowa State. This is not necessarily Campbell’s fault. He wins one game against OU and suddenly he is fielding serious calls from the NFL.
I think the truth on Campbell lies somewhere in between the hype and reality. Since 2016 (first year at Iowa State), Iowa State’s had a median ranking of 46th for scoring offense and 37th for scoring defense. This is a great improvement from where he took over, but is it out of this world? Secondly, recruiting at a program like Michigan or Nebraska entails a much more competitive process to beat out top tier schools, how great of a recruiter is Campbell? Its hard to tell at Iowa State, but he has consistently finished 6-8th in Big 12 recruiting rankings. Campbell has also never beaten Iowa. This may not matter a whole lot, but it is interesting that he has been unable to beat his rival.
Overall, Campbell is a solid coach and his teams play hard and he sets them on the right path. The talent is not all the way there, but he is solid and stable which is a heck of a lot better than previous staffs there. Take that for what its worth.
Reminiscing
I think Iowa State said the right things in the offseason, but when the expectations of a Big 12 title were thrown into the mix, things changed. Playing with expectations is different than with nothing to lose. Sort of like when the backup quarterback comes in and saves the day only to start the next week and look like a completely different player.
ESPN expected Iowa State to get to the playoff, and they will not reach that. Their fans clamored for respect and got a taste of it this offseason only for their team to piss it down their leg with a beatdown from their rival. Tough scene.
The primary driver for this season getting off the rails has been Brock Purdy. Maybe the expectations got to his head, I don’t know. In games against Iowa and Baylor (the only quality opponents so far), Purdy is 35/60, with one touchdown and four interceptions.
The Challenge
This Iowa State team is experienced and has some solid NFL prospects on its roster. Breece Hall, Charlie Kolar, Xavier Hutchinson, and Brock Purdy (mentioned above) make up the nucleus of this team. Their experience has produced a lot and certainly deserves respect.
On the flip side, Iowa State has a solid defense lead by Jake Hummel at linebacker and Will McDonald IV at defensive end. They run a 3 man front and fit gaps well. This defense makes stopping the run a priority and K-State will have a big challenge here.
This is a solid team make no mistake about it.
What to Watch for
Iowa State uses a mix of 11 and 21 personnel. This offense runs through their star running back Breece Hall. K-State will really need to maintain gap discipline pursuing zone run plays because Hall has great vision and is liable to cut it back across a defenders face if he has the leverage.
I think K-State is really going to have to consider playing a standup defensive end this game. Big 12 teams are getting a good push on the three man front as linebackers are catching tackles 3/4 yards down field as opposed to 1/2. Iowa State runs a similar scheme to K-State on defense so the Iowa State offense see’s those type of looks every day at practice and I think that puts K-State at a slight disadvantage.
On offense, I expect another heavy day passing for Skylar. The Iowa State secondary has been suspect and I think K-State’s scheme matches well. I see Deuce getting a lot of short passes as the Iowa State linebackers lack speed and coverage skills, this should be a positive play that K-State keeps coming back to for chunk yardage plays. I am still worried about Skylar’s lack of mobility. The QB run game is probably abandoned and I think Iowa State will be more aggressive blitz wise. How the offensive line handles the blitz will be a significant development.
By the Numbers
Scoring Defense- 15.6 PPG (10th nationally)
Rushing Offense and Defense- Offense: 182 YPG (43rd nationally) Defense: 90 YPG (9th nationally)
3rd Down conversion Offense and Defense- Offense: 36% (21/58) (94th nationally) Defense: 32% (23/70) (28th nationally)
Turnover Margin- 0 (T-65th nationally)
Penalty Yardage- 33 YPG (4th nationally)
Wrapping Up
It was evident during the OU game that Skylar had the pass game working and I really think this aggressiveness will continue as the season goes on. I really like K-States ability to work Deuce in space against these slower linebackers from Iowa State. This game is probably going to come down to the wire. I think Iowa State will make it a point to run the ball and then try and hit something over the top with play action. Nothing thought provoking, but this is what they do. I am so conflicted with this game. Without a mobile Skylar and a couple of poor performances defensively, its hard for me to get to a place where K-State wins or covers. I say take the Cyclones at -6.5.
Week 7 Picks
We were -5 units last week and overall (-3 units) for the year. Please find my week 7 picks below.
Pitt -5 vs. Virginia Tech (1 Units)- I think the Pitt offense is a lot of fun and I do not see the Virginia Tech offense able to keep pace. I think Pitt gets them by a touchdown.
Stanford -1.5 vs. Washington State (3 Units)- Stanford is so up and down, I think you ride the wave and catch them on a good week against a bullshit Wazzu team.
Texas A&M vs. Mizzou +9 (1 Units) A&M’s wildly emotional victory is tough to get up for against a hapless Mizzou team. Is this A&M offense really improved? I think there is some value here, take the tigers.