Hello Friends,
If you still follow and read, thank you for your continued support and readership. Before we get to the meat of the post, I need to say a few words about the hiring of Collin Klein and the direction of this Substack moving forward.
I was a walk-on at K-State from 2012 through 2016. I was some stupid freshman in 2012, technically “teammates” with Collin. I eventually became roommates with his brother. I would consider Collin an acquaintance and his brother a friend. I provide this background knowledge only to inform you, the reader, that it will be tough for me to continue to write objectively about K-State football so long as Collin Klein is the head coach.
My goal with this page has been to write informative, differentiated content that you, the reader, might find valuable. Writing is a passion project of mine, but with Collin as head coach, I fear I can’t be as objective as I would like to be. When you combine this with some changing life events on my end, it becomes difficult to continue to write at the pace and degree of honesty in which I originally planned for this page.
All this is to say that there will more than likely be a change or two to the content schedule moving forward. I am getting behind the idea that less is more, and if I can write 6 really good pieces, that might outweigh 12 average preview pieces + a game recap each week. I am still experimenting with this, so please bear with me through a change.
Now to today’s post.
Familiar Sounds
The 2026 offseason brought about a familiar sound to the K-State faithful. The sound of silence. Sure, there were a few social media posts and a couple of press conferences, but overall it has been a quiet offseason in Manhattan. Quiet is beneficial. No time for social media fodder; Collin and the coaches have a lot of work to do.
Speaking of coaches, by my count, Collin’s staff features 7 assistant coaches that had some sort of role on the Snyder 2.0 staff or Klieman’s staff. Obviously, the circumstances of K-State football over the past few years are unique, but I take this as a good sign that people want to continue to coach at K-State and be a part of what Collin is trying to build.
Avery’s Moment
If I had to summarize Avery Johnson’s 2025 season in one word, it would be variable. From the disaster that was the beginning of the season to the dismantling of KU. Avery was a bit erratic at times last season. This is nothing new. The story arc of Avery’s career thus far is a bit complex. On one hand, the on-field viewing leaves many fans wanting more. Yet, when it’s all said and done, Avery will more than likely lead every major statistical category in K-State history. Without a marquee win or season, this makes Avery’s legacy challenging to an observer.
Enter Collin Klein.
Adaptive
The beauty of the Collin Klein offensive system is that it’s not overly reliant on superior quarterback play. It’s adaptive, methodical, and leaves room for error. Since becoming a full-time offensive coordinator in 2022, Collin has achieved results with different types of quarterbacks.
Take the 2022 Big 12 Championship K-State team. That K-State offense finished 47th in adjusted EPA/Play at .03. Yet, Adrian Martinez finished top 10 in EPA/Rush at .45. The following season, K-State finished 17th in adjusted EPA/Play while winning 9 games.
Collin’s stint at A&M followed an eerily similar trajectory. Texas A&M finished the 2024 season ranked 52nd in adjusted EPA/Play at .02. Marcel Reed finished that year ranked 29th in EPA/Rush. A&M finished the 2025 season ranked 16th in adjusted EPA/play at .09.
Methodical
In my research for this post, I had not realized how reliant K-State had become on the explosive in both 2024 and 2025. Those 2024 and 2025 teams finished in the 86th and 89th percentile for explosive play %.
If you track that with what Collin produced at K-State and A&M from 2022 to 2025, those respective offenses finished, 52nd in 2022, 54th in 2023, 33rd in 2024, and 53rd in 2025.
I am not suggesting explosive plays are bad, but I believe in the power of trade-offs, and I am a believer that Collin’s methodical approach to the offense will produce an overall better outcome for Avery and the 2026 K-State football team.
One final note, I think many of the offseason previews have failed to mention the return of Linkon Cure. I know his first season was not what fans had hoped, but Collin knows how to get the ball to the playmakers, and I think Linkon Cure will receive a lot more targets this season.
Double-Edged Sword
What if I told you that Avery had more rushing attempts per game in 2025 than he did in 2024? Last season, Avery averaged 9.09 rushing attempts per game, an increase from the 8.70 he had in 2024. Many seem to believe that Collin will increase Avery’s rushing attempts in 2026. I am less inclined to believe that.
While Collin has proven he is willing to risk injury for the high-upside nature of the QB run game, further context is needed. He had the luxury of Adrian Martinez and Will Howard in 2022. When Adrian eventually got hurt, Will Howard stepped in marvellously. In 2023 he operated Will Howard and Avery to lean on (which he did against Texas Tech). In 2024, Marcel Reed and Connor Weigman battled it out, with Reed having the upper hand for the majority of the season. However, Connor was a perfectly capable starter and has found success at Houston. The overall point is that the drop-off in talent in those seasons was not that steep in case of injury.
2025 was the first true test of Collin operating with a huge downside in case things went awry. Marcel Reed finished 2025 with 12 fewer carries — or 2 per game — than he did in 2024.. There could be a number of reasons for this, but I think the downside certainly factored into the equation.
Considering this, I do not believe we will see a large uptick in the number of rushing attempts for Avery. I think we will see well-designed quarterback run-plays, but I don’t see a breakout from Avery’s 2024 to 2025 raw rushing figures.
The careful balance of how Collin manages the run game will be an ongoing story this season.
Special Teams U?
Stanton Weber returning to K-State to lead the special teams is the hire that you feel the best about if you’re a K-State fan. Klieman let a lot of things slip his final few seasons, none larger than the special teams groups. Fumbles on the return, inconsistent kicking, and blunders all over the place created a lackluster few units. Stanton learned under one of the best. His pride will not let his units become lackluster. While K-State may not be Special Teams U anymore, Stanton is a step in the right direction.
Big Question Marks
I am not going to spend a ton of time on the defense, as making any sort of comparison is difficult given the new coaching staff and players. I think the best position group on defense right now is the cornerbacks. Zashon Rich was an All-Big 12 honorable mention last season. Donovan McIntosh is a big, lengthy corner that finished the 2025 season on a high note. They also added depth with Kaleb Patterson from Illinois and a slew of other transfers. I would anticipate that K-State has the cornerback vs. receiver matchup advantage right now in almost every game.
While the cornerback room should help in limiting the opponents’ pass game, like many, I am concerned about how K-State is going to stop the run in 2026. The middle of the football field will feature a lot of new faces. Two new starting linebackers, two new defensive tackles, and a new group of safeties. This is the biggest question mark on defense. Jordan Peterson is being pegged as a Mike Elko guy. I am not sure he has quite the personnel to replicate what Elko was able to do yet. How K-State stops the run will be the big defensive story of 2026.
37 Days to Kickoff
With 37 days to kickoff, hope springs eternal. A new era is underway. One might argue this will require the greatest coaching job of Collin’s career. A lot of new faces and a lot of unproven talent.
Collin is an outspoken Christian. I think he understands the responsibility and values one must adhere to with displaying his faith so outwardly. This runs counter to an industry that increasingly rewards bad actors and nefarious activity. I will take a good person running our program over a clown any day. Our program is in good hands, let’s see if we can win a few ball games while we are at it.