Cold Fort Worth beer, just ain't no good for jealous
I've tried it night, after night
You're in someone else's arms in Dallas
Does Fort Worth ever cross your mind?
-George Strait in Does Forth Ever Cross your Mind
Gary Patterson is TCU football. He built TCU into one of the original G5 powerhouse schools that fought every year to be apart of the conversation. Over the course of a 22 year tenure, Patterson’s defenses were some of the best in the country. The height of Patterson’s career was the Rose Bowl victory in 2011 (2010 season) and Peach Bowl win in 2015 (2014 season) the same year TCU shared a split of the Big 12 conference title.
While Patterson’s past success has built a substantial amount of equity in the program, it is beginning to feel like the end for Gary Patterson’s run at TCU.
Since the 2017 season, Patterson has accumulated 20-19 record. This is despite TCU doing some of their best recruiting work in program history. Patterson has also had numerous issues on the PR front and has faced the never ending transfer portal.
I think we are approaching a situation that could result in some sort of mutual retirement or parting of ways.
Whatever may or may not happen is not relevant to this game. In this week’s preview I will talk about the challenge K-State will face in this week’s game against TCU.
The Challenge
The biggest challenge for K-State will be managing the speed of this TCU offense. TCU is lead on offense by their returning QB Max Duggan. So far, Duggan has completed 65% of his passes, throwing for 14 touchdowns and rushing for two more. Duggan is coupled with Zach Evans, the excellent do it all running back, and Quentin Johnson, a big lengthy ball hawk at wideout. Furthermore, they bring an experienced offensive line that has only given up 8 sacks so far this year.
Containing this offense will be the biggest challenge for K-State this game.
What to Watch For
TCU has a nice package of receivers that they are able to utilize on the edges. K-State has struggled getting guys to the point of the attack on the outside and this will certainly be exploited this game. I anticipate a lot of screens, and short quick passes in space.
Two key passing concepts for TCU are crossing routes and double in routes. TCU will line up two slot receivers on the same side and run double in breaking routes at 5 yards. These are good concepts, but require time to develop and clear. The K-State defensive line generating pressure on their own will be a big factor this game.
I think K-State will pick up where they left off last week and elects for the 3-3-5 as I imagine TCU will have a similar game plan as Tech did. Short passes, run game, then try for a long pass down field.
This TCU defense is bad and I expect K-State to have a big day running the ball. They’re fairly light up front and K-State will have an advantage here. I expect K-State to control the clock and ultimately control the game.
By the Numbers
Scoring Defense- 31.6 PPG (104th nationally)
Rushing Offense and Defense- Offense: 216 YPG (20th nationally) Defense: 212 YPG (120th nationally)
3rd Down conversion Offense and Defense- Offense: 52% (48/92) (5th nationally) Defense: 42% (36/86) (94th nationally)
Turnover Margin- -3 (T-101 nationally tied with K-State)
Penalty Yardage- 63 YPG (T-20th nationally)
K-State should really be clicking this game. This defense is bad and K-State’s offense is designed to run. I think avoiding a disaster start, K-State will have a nice statistical day on offense. I think the defense for K-State can do just enough to slow this team down and get a few stops late in the game to put it away.
Wrapping Up
This TCU team is deflated, they just had a player “retire” and I am hard pressed to think Gary Patterson being able to rally the troops for a bowl game. K-State has their own issues, but TCU seems to be in trouble. K-State is at home and everyone is relatively healthy. I think this game is favorable towards K-State.
Take the Cats at -3.5.
Week 9 Picks
We were +4 units last week and overall (0 units) for the year. Please find my week 9 picks below.
Georgia vs. Florida+14 (1 Units) - I am not sure I quite trust the Georgia offense with their quarterback situation yet. Yes, the defense is incredible, but Dan Mullen has earned the trust to scheme something different for a big game.
Miami +9 vs. Pitt (1 Units)- Pitt is coming off an extremely emotional win against Clemson. Miami played really hard last week. I do not think Miami wins, but I think they keep it close.
Michigan vs. Michigan State Under 50.5 (2 Units)- This will be an emotional game and I have a hard time getting to 51 points. Think this finishes 24-17 somewhere in that range.
Notre Dame-3.5 vs. North Carolina (1 Units). Yes, Kyle Hamilton is out, but he may not be needed this week. This North Carolina offensive line is bad and I think the Notre Dame offense is figuring it out at the right time.